||In order to find out what the future of the region could look like GLOWA JR produces regional climate change scenarios, regional development scenarios and land use scenarios. The effects of these three driving forces on water fluxes, water availability, water demand and productivity for the different human and ecosystem uses is simulated with a set of different models. This information is used in stakeholder dialogues to identify strategies for sustainable water and land resource management for coping with the impacts of global and regional change on water scarcity. The different models and tools used in GLOWA JR are shortly explained on this page.
Water management tool
- WEAP (Water Evaluation and Planning Tool)
is the central application tool in the project. It integrates many different scientific results. Its central aim is to transfer the scientific project results into application. The WEAP applications reproduce the water system in the Jordan River Basin – on the supply side as well as the demand side. Thus, they allow comprehensive testing of joint-management options of green and blue water resources and trade-off analyses including allocation of water from irrigated agriculture to rain-fed land use (e.g. open space, rain-fed crops, rainwater harvesting). Furthermore, WEAP addresses conjunctive surface and groundwater management by incorporating the groundwater model MODFLOW.
Regional stakeholders are closely involved in WEAP development to meet local demands and guarantee the regional implementation of the tool. WEAP is therefore predestined to support regional water planners in analyzing management options and water allocation schemes to apply an effective water management under global change. This makes WEAP a key water management tool in the Jordan River Region beyond GLOWA JR.
Scenario development and analysis
- SAS (Story And Simulation Approach)
is an iterative, stakeholder-driven procedure of building and analyzing scenarios aiming at a balanced engagement of stakeholders and project scientists. This is achieved by integrating mainly narrative information provided by stakeholders and quantitative information provided by scientific models and other sources. As a result of the SAS scenario exercise, four "regional development" scenarios under global change until 2050 were developed which include qualitative storylines as well as quantitative modeling results. These scenarios serve as a backdrop for the development and test of specific water- and land-management strategies for the region.
simulates evapotranspiration, soil moisture, irrigation water demand, groundwater recharge, and surface runoff. The latter two can be aggregated to “water availability”, i.e., the amount of “blue” water which is theoretically exploitable by humans. The hydrological impact of climate and land use change can be directly assessed with this model.
- HYMKE (HYdological Model for Karst Environment)
simulates stream flow of the upper Jordan River catchments (Dan, Hermon and Snir Subcatchments). The model is the major tool for future studies of the upper Jordan River catchment´s hydrology since it takes into account the karstic nature of the Hermon region.
- WaSiM (Water Flow and Balance Simulation Model)
simulates the vertical and lateral water fluxes at the surface, the unsaturated subsurface and the saturated subsurface. It is a distributed model and provides for every grid cell information, e.g., on evapotranspiration, infiltraton, surface runoff, and groundwater flow. It comprises the subcatchments of the Hasbani, Dan, Banias and Hermon river (upper Jordan River catchment).
- LSM (Lake Salinity Model)
simulates the annual changes in the salinity of Lake Kinneret, based on predicted water and solute inflows, evaporation, and planed outflows.
- LEM (Lake Evaporation Model)
simulates the daily evaporation from Lake Kinneret, based on predicted air temperature, relative humidity, short and long wave radiation and wind speed.
simulates the water balance in high temporal and spatial resolution, including: overland flow generation, water percolation, channel transmission losses, wadi runoff and the potential of rainwater harvesting in the entire lower Jordan River catchment.
Land use modelling
- LandSHIFT.R (Land Simulation to Harmonize and Integrate Freshwater availability and the Terrestrial environment – Regional version) generates scenarios of land-use and land-cover change. Its driving forces are demands for land intensive commodities (e.g., food crops) and assumptions on policy and socio economy (regional development scenarios).
Ecosystem and agricultural modelling and evaluation
- WADISCAPE (Wadi Landscape)
simulates the effect of precipitation and grazing intensity on the biomass production and distribution of growth forms (e.g., grasses, woody plants) of semi-natural vegetation in a wadi landscape. It also estimates carrying capacity for livestock grazing.
- MaxEnt Model (Maximum Entropy Model)
simulates the patterns of faunal biodiversity along a rainfall gradient and patterns of animal biodiversity under different land use and land management practices west to the Jordan River. It also simulates the distribution changes of crop pest species, e.g. fruit flies, in response to climate change and national planning.
- Wheat Model
simulates a seasonal stress index (SI) based on daily calculation of potential and actual evapotranspiration and soil properties. SI is the ratio between actual and potential evapotranspiration. The evaluation of the grain wheat yields is based on SI value and nitrogen application. The model can also evaluate the effectiveness of suppression of direct evaporation from soil surface (mulching).
- Cotton Model
evaluates cotton lint yield by simulation of the processes occurring in the soil, plant, aerial environment of the crop, and the interactions between them.
- Land evaluation for effluent reuse
A GIS-based land suitability classification for effluent irrigation is being developed, considering the following five risks: mobilisation of inorganic adsorbable pollutants (e.g. heavy metals), soil salinization, slaking of the upper layers, boron mobilisation and mobilisation of nonadsorbable substances (e.g. nitrate).
Socio Economic models and valuation of ecosystem services
- VALUE (Vegetative Agricultural Land Use Economic)
simulates the land and water allocations needed to maximize farming profit under given climate and regional change conditions for Israel.
- Palestinian Farming System Model
simulates the prognoses of the impacts from changes in water, climate and regional development on the economic performance of agricultural activities and their socio-economic consequences (e.g., prize of cultivated land and water for agricultural use, type of crops to be produced, use of treated wastewater). It also calculates the shadow prices of land and water.
- Jordanian Farming System Model
simulates the prognoses the impacts from changes in water, climate and regional development on the economic performance of agricultural activities and their socio-economic consequences (e.g., prize of cultivated land and water for agricultural use, type of crops to be produced, use of treated wastewater). It also calculates the shadow prices of land and water.
- Valuation of recreational benefits
This is associated with open space, agricultural land and rangeland under climate change. The monetary value of the utility the local population accrue from the landscape of grazing land, different agricultural crops and rangeland was evaluated.
- Valuation of ecosystem services
Valuation of ecosystem services, beyond the direct benefits to society from demanded environmental goods and services (valued by the models mentioned above), are estimated using the ENVGROWTH model, a macroeconomic growth model that incorporates climate change impacts on the ecosystem services, and the EBIOVALUE, an additional Microeconomic model that links between climate change, land use and biodiversity economic value.
Regional Climate models
Transient runs of the regional climate models (RCM) MM5 and RegCM driven with boundary forcings from the ECHAM5 and HadCM3 general circulation models (GCM) are used to simulate the climate change signal for the Jordan River area until 2099. A list of the climate change scenarios produced within GLOWA JR can be downloaded here.